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Market Updates on Bitcoin: A Comprehensive Overview
Recent data suggests that approximately 47% of all Bitcoin is currently held at an unrealised loss, translating to US$304 billion of long-term holder supply. This marks the most severe condition since 2023. Furthermore, the Bitcoin Impact Index soared by 13 points in a week, reaching 57.4, indicating notable market stress that historically precedes price declines exceeding 25%. Concurrently, stablecoin netflows experienced a dramatic reversal, shifting from a positive average inflow of US$250 million to a net outflow of US$292 million.
In Week 13, the Bitcoin Impact Index entered the “High Impact” zone, a critical threshold defined by CEX.io, reflecting broad market stress and implications for various investor groups. The significant movement in this index occurs while Bitcoin (BTC) trades at US$66,567 (AU$96,522), following a week that saw a decline erasing gains accumulated over six weeks.
The Bitcoin Impact Index aggregates on-chain stress signals, focusing on holder behaviour, derivatives activity, and capital flows. Readings between 50 and 74 signal various forms of market distress.
Stress Signals Among Long-Term Holders
A primary signal of distress has emerged from the behaviour of long-term holders. Their Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which evaluates whether coins are sold at profits or losses, has dropped to 0.724—its lowest level in three years. Currently, over 4.6 million BTC held by these investors are experiencing unrealised losses, constituting over 30% of the total long-term supply. The total value of these positions underwater is around US$304 billion (AU$440.8 billion).
Despite these losses, the average cost basis for long-term holders hovers between US$43,000 and US$44,000 (approximately AU$62,350 to AU$63,800), indicating that this group remains profitable overall. However, the coins being sold are now being exited at a loss. Short-term holders have a cost basis near US$84,000 (AU$121,800), with around 92% of recent buyers below breakeven according to on-chain data.
Derivatives Market Dynamics
In the derivatives market, funding rates have returned towards neutral; however, total liquidations soared to US$288 million (AU$417.6 million) for the week, nearly tripling from the previous week’s figures. Of this, long positions comprised 61% of forced liquidations, showcasing the precarious situation faced by traders.
Stablecoin netflows have also reversed significantly, moving from an average daily inflow of US$250 million (AU$362.5 million) to an outflow of US$292 million (AU$423.4 million). Notably, ETF flows have turned negative, and miners have returned to selling after a brief period of accumulation.
Approximately 20,900 BTC per day is current moving to exchanges, although this figure remains relatively low—suggesting that while stress is evident, there isn’t a widespread capitulation among investors. CEX.io’s findings indicate that similar levels on the Bitcoin Impact Index were observed in mid-2018, mid-2022, and late January 2026.
Conclusion
The state of the Bitcoin market continues to reflect significant pressures, with both long-term holders and market dynamics illustrating the complexities of the current environment.
As the situation unfolds, stakeholders will be closely monitoring movements in the Bitcoin Impact Index, potential rebounds, and the broader implications for the cryptocurrency landscape amid these challenging conditions.
For further insights and developments in this evolving market, stay tuned to updates from credible financial news sources.
