Bernstein Adjusts Price Targets for Crypto-Linked Stocks, Maintains Optimism Amid Market Challenges
On March 30, 2026, Bernstein announced a reduction in price targets for three notable companies—Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure—while continuing to uphold an ‘Outperform’ rating for each. This decision comes in the wake of a significant decline, with these stocks experiencing almost a 60% drop from their peak values in 2025, thus moving into what Bernstein describes as discount territory despite the current market sluggishness.
The new price targets set by Bernstein are as follows: Coinbase’s target was adjusted to US$330 (approximately AU$479) from US$440 (around AU$638), Robinhood’s target was decreased to US$130 (around AU$189) from US$160 (approximately AU$232), and Figure’s was revised to US$67 (about AU$97) down from US$72 (approximately AU$104). Interestingly, existing stock prices for these companies are somewhat lower than Bernstein’s new targets: Coinbase shares are trading near US$160 (AU$232), Robinhood at around US$64 (AU$93), and Figure approximately US$31 (AU$45).
According to Bernstein, the recent downturn in the market can be attributed primarily to two short-term pressures: a weakened global appetite for risk associated with the escalating Iran conflict and a diminishing investor sentiment in cryptocurrencies following the cooling off of last year’s bullish trends. Nonetheless, the firm contends that these transient factors do not impact the long-term revenue forecasts for the three companies.
Bullish Outlook for Coinbase and Robinhood
Despite facing immediate challenges, such as a 30% decline in spot trading volumes compared to Q4 2025, Coinbase’s long-term outlook remains optimistic. Bernstein has revised its earnings-per-share estimate for 2026 downward by 44%, now projecting US$5.97 (AU$9). However, the firm continues to anticipate a robust 26% compound annual revenue growth through 2027. This forecast is partly bolstered by Coinbase’s substantial 50% share of Circle’s USDC income distributions, which provides a stable recurrent revenue stream that is less dependent on trading volumes.
In a similar vein, Robinhood’s cryptocurrency operations—constituting about 20% of its total revenue—also face pressures. Nonetheless, Bernstein anticipates substantial growth in Robinhood’s prediction markets, estimating potential revenue of US$586 million (AU$850 million) in 2026, reflecting an impressive 286% increase year-on-year. The brokerage suggests that Robinhood is strategically well-positioned in this rapidly evolving category, which previously experienced record levels of activity by late 2025.
Figure’s Distinct Position in the Market
Figure approaches the market from a unique angle, having IPO’d in September 2025 at a valuation of US$5.3 billion (AU$7.69 billion). The company’s focus is on blockchain-based home lending and tokenized real-world assets, distinguishing it from its peers engaged predominantly in crypto trading.
Bernstein believes that despite the current market challenges, crypto equities might be nearing a price floor. This potential stabilisation will likely depend on whether the prevailing risk-averse sentiment in the market starts to diminish as the first-quarter earnings figures begin to settle.
In summary, while Bernstein has adjusted its price expectations for Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure due to existing market conditions, the firm remains optimistic about their long-term prospects. The mitigation of short-term pressures tied to geopolitical events and market sentiment could pave the way for a resurgence in performance for these companies.
