Chainalysis has made a bold prediction regarding the future of stablecoins, estimating that transaction volumes could soar to as much as US$1.5 quadrillion (approximately AU$2.1 quadrillion) by 2035. The firm also anticipates that stablecoins will reach transaction volume parity with major payment networks like Visa and Mastercard between 2031 and 2039.
In its latest report, Chainalysis outlined a baseline estimate of US$719 trillion (around AU$1.02 quadrillion) in stablecoin transaction volumes by 2035, even without considering additional macroeconomic catalysts. According to their analysis, if demographic trends and merchant adoption continue to evolve positively, the potential for stablecoin transactions could extend “far higher”.
To put these figures in context, Chainalysis projected that in 2025, stablecoins would facilitate approximately US$28 trillion (about AU$39 trillion) in what they define as “real economic activity.” This figure is derived from payment flows, remittances, and settlement transactions, excluding trading activities that can distort these numbers.
### Key Drivers for Growth in Stablecoins
The report identifies two critical factors that could propel the growth of stablecoins. First, there is the anticipated generational transfer of wealth, with estimates suggesting that between 2028 and 2048, up to US$100 trillion (around AU$145 trillion) will transition from older generations to Millennials and Gen Z. These younger demographics are notably more inclined to engage with digital assets, making them more likely to adopt and use stablecoins for transactions.
Secondly, distribution is highlighted as a significant driver for mainstream adoption. As stablecoins become more seamlessly integrated into payment processes—particularly at the merchant level—they will likely transform from an optional payment method into a standard way of transacting. Chainalysis argues that the increased use of AI in commerce will further accelerate this shift, making digital currency transactions feel as routine as any other form of payment.
Illustrating this trend, notable acquisitions in the space include Stripe’s purchase of stablecoin infrastructure provider Bridge and Mastercard’s acquisition of BVNK. These moves indicate that traditional financial players are beginning to view stablecoins as essential components of their payment systems rather than niche alternatives.
Moreover, a former advisor to the Trump administration has suggested that the adoption of stablecoins could ultimately enhance the US banking system by directing more deposits into it, depending on how these assets are managed in terms of issuance and reserve backing.
In summary, the evolution of stablecoins seems poised for a transformative decade ahead, driven primarily by generational wealth transfer and increased integration into payment systems. As more merchants adopt these digital assets and as younger populations become comfortable using them, the landscape of global payments may change dramatically.
