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Bitcoin Breaks Resistance, But Market Signals Caution
On April 15, Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a notable US$76,000 (AU$110,200), marking its highest point since early February. However, the cryptocurrency subsequently retraced to approximately US$74,800 (AU$108,460) as profit-taking among investors came into play.
Recent on-chain data indicates a significant rise in exchange inflows, with CryptoQuant reporting hourly inflows nearing 11,000 BTC—the highest since December 2025. This influx represents an increase from 9,000 BTC in March, signalling heightened activity in the market.
Key Metrics
- Average Deposits: Transactions averaged 2.25 BTC, the highest level not observed since July 2024.
- Large Transfers: Over 40% of the exchange inflows were from significant transactions exceeding 1,000 BTC, predominantly moving to Binance, suggesting an uptick in whale activity and selling pressure.
Short-term holders notably transferred 63,000 BTC to exchanges on April 14, marking the largest daily volume seen in 2026, underlining the intensified selling atmosphere.
Key Resistance Levels
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, identified the US$76,000 to US$76,800 (AU$110,200 to AU$111,360) range as a crucial resistance level. This range corresponds to the “traders’ realised price,” where many traders typically break even, often resulting in increased selling pressure. A similar scenario was observed in January 2026, where Bitcoin fell from US$100,000 (AU$145,000) to US$60,000 (AU$87,000) following a peaked rally.
Daily realised profits are currently estimated at around US$500 million (AU$725 million), significantly below the US$1 billion (AU$1.45 billion) threshold associated historically with accelerated selling. However, should Bitcoin continue its rally above US$76,000, realised profits could rise toward or surpass this notable benchmark, amplifying the risk of further market distribution.
The recent upward price movement can be attributed to a combination of factors, including an extended period of undervaluation, easing geopolitical tensions related to the US-Iran dynamics, and a weakening US dollar.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s recent ascent indicates strong market interest, but traders should remain wary of potential selling pressures as it approaches critical resistance levels. The balance between profit-taking and sustained demand will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can maintain its current momentum or if another correction is underway.
As the situation develops, stakeholders in the cryptocurrency realm will be keeping an eye on market signals and external economic factors that may influence Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming weeks.
