ASX 200 Live Updates – Thursday, 26th June

ASX Live Coverage — Thursday, June 26

Welcome to our live updates on the ASX for Thursday, June 26. We’re trialling a new format aimed at providing timely updates before and throughout the trading day. Don’t forget to refresh the page to see the latest news and feel free to share feedback via our survey.

Powell’s Congressional Testimony: Day Two

[9:05 am] Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s second day of testimony before Congress yielded few new insights. His comments remained consistent with previous statements. Key takeaways include:

• Interest Rate Cuts: Powell indicated that prospective trade agreements could lead to consideration of interest rate reductions.
• Inflation Due to Tariffs: He reiterated that all economic forecasts predict a notable increase in inflation attributed to tariffs, though any effect may be temporary.
• Stagflation Concerns: Currently, there are no indicators of stagflation; however, the Fed is vigilant and monitoring potential risks.
• Economic Outlook: The economy remains robust, but the impacts of tariffs on inflation are uncertain, leading to a wait-and-see strategy.

Citi’s Economic Surprise Index at a 10-Month Low

[9:00 am] Citi’s Economic Surprise Index has fallen to its lowest point since September 2024, driven by lacklustre economic indicators:

• Weak Labour Market: The US June consumer confidence labour market differential shrank to 11.1 points, the tightest gap since March 2021. Moreover, the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims has reached its highest level since August 2023, while continuing claims are nearing levels last seen in November 2021.
• Housing Sector Issues: May’s housing starts and building permits were below expectations, with existing home sales hitting the slowest pace since 2009.
• Corporate Spending Hesitance: Business surveys from Axios, JPMorgan, and the Richmond Fed Index indicate a decline in expectations for capital expenditure.

Stock Market Dynamics

[8:58 am] Major US indices wrapped up the previous session mostly lower, overshadowed by a notably robust performance from technology and AI stocks.

• The Israel-Iran ceasefire has reportedly held, and there are claims of minimal damage to Iranian energy infrastructure from recent US airstrikes.
• The market’s focus is shifting towards an upcoming reciprocal tariff deadline on July 9.
• Sources suggest the US is on the verge of making trade deals with significant partners like Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam.
• FedEx, considered an economic barometer, saw its share price drop by 3.2% after announcing that its quarterly profit would fall short of expectations, citing challenges from the ongoing trade war and dwindling demand.
• In contrast, Nvidia’s stock surged by 4.3%, buoyed by an upgrade from financial analysts, despite a lack of significant news pushing the stock’s rise.

Market Opening Update

[8:40 am] As we start the day, S&P/ASX 200 futures are down by 37 points (-0.43%). This follows a mixed performance on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq reached new record highs, whereas the equal-weight S&P 500 Index slipped by 0.72%, indicating weaker market breadth.

For those new to our coverage, be sure to catch up on today’s Morning Wrap for further insights.