As the conflict in Iran continues into its second month, the situation appears to be stabilising into a prolonged standoff, particularly impacting shipping routes in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has signalled a willingness to maintain a blockade, while Congress exhibits little ambition to challenge his administration’s stance.
Currently, military activities have decreased, yet significant disruptions to maritime shipping persist in the Strait, leading to uncertainty among shippers. This has placed immense pressure on energy markets, reflected in rising fuel costs, with gasoline prices in the US reaching new highs.
Reports indicate that the Trump administration is preparing for a protracted engagement, as he met with oil executives and communicated to aides his plans for an ongoing naval blockade of the strait. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced this with comments regarding a “maximum pressure campaign” against Iran, citing an estimated $170 million in daily revenue losses for the country, hoping it will force a change in Iranian policy.
Despite the pressure, Iranian authorities have maintained that discussions about nuclear agreements will not progress until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Recent diplomatic activities have included Iran’s foreign minister visiting Moscow to strengthen ties.
However, there was a small breakthrough when a Japanese tanker successfully navigated through the strait after being stranded since February. Japan’s Prime Minister praised this event as a sign of improvement, although industry analysts warn that normal traffic patterns remain far from recovery.
The oil market reflects this tension, with futures for both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude remaining elevated above $100 per barrel. Fuel prices have surged across the United States, now averaging over $4.20 a gallon, the highest figure recorded in 2026, indicating impending economic ramifications beyond just fuel costs, including potential increases in grocery prices.
With the 60-day War Powers Resolution threshold approaching, congressional scrutiny of the administration’s actions is anticipated to increase. Despite some dissent within the Republican Party, it appears unlikely that President Trump will face significant limitations from Congress in the near term. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine are scheduled to testify this week, which may highlight concerns among lawmakers regarding the continuation of military actions.
Despite potential tensions during the testimonies, analysts from Signum Global Advisors express skepticism regarding the likelihood of effective congressional resistance against the administration, arguing that any moves to limit Trump may falter without a major escalation in the conflict.
In summary, the ongoing situation in Iran represents a complex interplay of military strategy, economic ramifications, and political dynamics, with significant consequences anticipated for energy prices and broader economic stability.
