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Bitcoin’s Recent Performance: A Potential Breakout Ahead?
Over the past week, Bitcoin has consistently tested the US$71,500 mark (approximately AU$102,245), interacting with this pivotal level four times. This movement has led to the development of an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart, with analysts speculating that a breakout could push prices towards the US$80,000 target (around AU$114,400).
The recent trading range has tightened, hovering between US$68,969 (about AU$98,626) and US$72,026 (approximately AU$102,997). Insights from crypto trader Skew suggest that should Bitcoin successfully break through the US$71,500 resistance and maintain that level, the next targets could be around US$76,000 (approximately AU$108,680) and eventually US$80,000.
The market also saw a significant increase in derivative activity, as open interest surged by US$500 million (AU$715 million) within a 24-hour period, bringing the total to US$16.5 billion (AU$23.6 billion). Funding rates turned positive, recorded at 0.03% following Monday’s trading session, alongside a notable US$60 million (AU$85.8 million) buying interest during the New York trading hours, signalling robust demand at the US$71,500 level.
Encouraging On-Chain Indicators
On-chain data from CryptoQuant have shown positive signs. As of March 24, the seven-day standard deviation of short-term holder realised profits and losses on Binance fell to 255. Historically, similar readings have preceded significant price rallies, such as a 14% rise observed on February 27 and a 10% increase in late December.
However, analysts are cautious, noting that a breakout above US$71,500 will require solid buyer support, sustained accumulation, and an ability to absorb selling pressure from short traders. The Fear and Greed Index has recently dropped to 11, indicating extreme fear in the market. This sentiment is compounded by the fact that approximately 5.7 million BTC held by short-term holders are currently at a loss, with about 92% of these positions underwater.
Caution Among Analysts
Despite the recent positive indicators, there is a strong caution amongst analysts. Some warn that even if Bitcoin rallies toward the US$80,000 mark, the broader trend remains bearish, stemming from its peak of US$126,080 (AU$180,294) in October 2025. With US$4.5 billion in spot ETF outflows this year, some experts believe institutional interest is waning.
In summary, while Bitcoin is showing signs of potential upward momentum, the consensus among analysts is a mix of optimism and caution. For a more bullish outlook, Bitcoin must prove it can regain the US$72,000 level (approximately AU$102,960) and then sustain above the critical US$71,500 pivot point.
