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ASX Live Coverage Update – Tuesday, July 8
Welcome to our live ASX coverage. Today marks an exciting venture into a new format, featuring multiple posts ahead of the market opening and ongoing updates throughout the trading day. Please remember to refresh for the latest information and share your feedback on how we can improve.
Market Sentiment Insights
[8:57 am] Recent insights from various US brokers reveal several noteworthy trends:
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Bank of America (BofA) reported that its Bull & Bear indicator reached 6.0 last week, the highest figure since November 2024. This surge stems from strong global stock market performance, significant inflows into high-yield bonds, and solid credit market conditions. This positive sentiment is slightly tempered by weaker equity fund inflows, cautious hedge fund positioning, and increased demand for protections against potential vulnerabilities in the S&P 500.
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Goldman Sachs noted that Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are likely to continue their buying trends in the near future. They highlighted that recent domestic buying has been pivotal in balancing weaker foreign investment in U.S. stocks.
- According to JPMorgan, retail buying activity has decelerated in June, and current sentiment levels are notably lower compared to earlier in the year.
Rising Oil Prices
[8:48 am] Oil prices remained resilient with Brent crude and WTI gaining 0.2% and 2.1% respectively. This increase comes despite OPEC’s unexpected output hike announced over the weekend.
OPEC+ confirmed an acceleration of oil production, with an additional 548,000 barrels per day expected in August 2025, following a series of smaller hikes in prior months. This adjustment reverses a substantial cut of 2.2 million barrels made last year.
Saudi Aramco has increased premiums for its flagship crude in Asia, reflecting market optimism, supported by tight current supply, falling U.S. crude and diesel inventories, and peak summer demand.
However, analysts have flagged rising trade tensions and a looming winter surplus, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a 1.5% surplus of global consumption in Q4, which could pose downside risks for oil prices in the upcoming months.
Trade Policy Updates
[8:45 am] In a significant development, former President Trump has announced new tariff rates on key trading partners through letters posted on Truth Social, effective from August 1. The tariffs are as follows:
- 25% on imports from Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Kazakhstan
- 30% on goods from South Africa
- 40% on imports from Laos and Myanmar
These tariff announcements triggered a decline in U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 falling by 0.79%, marking its most significant drop in three weeks. The news bolstered the U.S. dollar, increased bond yields, and caused gold prices to rise, all indicative of market uncertainty linked to Trump’s unpredictable trade policies.
Market Opening Sentiment
[8:35 am] The S&P/ASX 200 futures are currently down by 47 points (-0.55%) as uncertainty mounts following Trump’s announcement of higher tariff rates scheduled to commence on August 1. This development has notably pulled U.S. benchmarks downward, nudged bond yields upwards, and exerted downward pressure on commodity prices, including copper and aluminium.
If you’re just joining us, you can catch up on all the important details in today’s Morning Wrap. Stay tuned for more updates throughout the day!
