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Exploring Jupiter Mines: A Key Player in the Manganese Market
I am committed to highlighting some of the ASX’s most compelling dividend stocks, equipping investors with the essential data required for insightful decision-making. Today, our focus is on Jupiter Mines (ASX: JMS), a prominent manganese producer.
Jupiter Mines holds a 49.9% interest in Tshipi, the world’s leading and most enduring manganese mine. Since 2019, the company has disbursed $410 million in dividends, a significant achievement considering its current market capitalisation sits at approximately $430 million. This sustained financial health is underpinned by Tshipi’s reliable production capabilities at competitive costs, generating stable earnings and dividends across various market cycles.
The Role of Manganese
Manganese is primarily used in the steel industry, constituting around 90% of its consumption. It functions as a deoxidiser and alloying agent, enhancing steel’s strength and durability. While its traditional application remains predominant, emerging markets for manganese in battery technologies and electric vehicles are garnering attention.
What Sets Jupiter Mines Apart?
Correlation with Manganese Prices: As a dedicated manganese entity, JMS is highly sensitive to fluctuations in manganese prices. Over the past couple of years, prices have dipped to approximately US$3.3 per metric tonne unit (mtu), down from 2018 highs of US$7.0/mtu. Despite this downward trend, price leverage has previously resulted in significant gains for investors.
In early 2024, manganese prices surged following South32’s suspension of operations at its Groote Eylandt Mining Company (GEMCO) due to damage from Tropical Cyclone Megan. GEMCO was forecasted to supply about 10% of global manganese, with an expected output of 1.7 million tonnes for FY24. Consequently, JMS shares experienced a dramatic increase, briefly doubling in value between mid-March and early May.
Recent Joint Venture Developments: Recently, Exxaro acquired a 50.1% stake in Tshipi from joint venture partners Ntsimbintle and OM Holdings. OM Holdings sold its 13% share for US$101.4 million (approximately A$155 million), valuing Tshipi at A$1.19 billion, indicating that Jupiter’s stake is worth approximately A$596 million.
A New Major Stakeholder: Alongside this acquisition, Exxaro purchased 392 million Jupiter shares from Ntsimbintle at 31.7 cents each—a substantial 120% premium compared to pre-announcement prices. However, despite these substantial changes, JMS shares have mostly traded around 23 cents. The market’s reaction has been surprisingly subdued; after a brief 58% rally from May 13 to 14, the stock quickly retreated and remained relatively stable in the 20-cent range for several months before showing recent signs of upward momentum.
Analyst Insights and Predictions
Macquarie analysts anticipate modest growth and continued dividend payments through FY29. The following projections summarise their forecasts:
| Financial Metrics | FY24 | FY25e | FY26e | FY27e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA ($m) | 41 | 38 | 49 | 28 |
| Net profit ($m) | 39 | 37 | 49 | 28 |
| Dividend per share (cents) | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% |
| Manganese price (44%, US$/mtu) | 3.77 | 3.97 | 4.66 | 4.70 |
Source: Macquarie | August 2025
The analysts did note a softer June quarter for JMS, with realised prices falling to US$3.86 per dmtu—a 4% decrease from the previous quarter in a challenging manganese market. Nonetheless, they acknowledged that Tshipi maintained strong profit margins even during this period.
Conclusion
Jupiter Mines exemplifies operational stability, consistently delivering solid profits throughout market fluctuations while ensuring dependable dividend payments. Manganese prices have stabilised in recent years, hovering in the low-to-mid US$3/dmtu range, which is significantly lower than the US$4-5/dmtu levels observed in 2019-20. This pricing environment has led to minimal stock price growth, with shares largely remaining in the mid-20 cent bracket.
The stock’s correlation with manganese prices was evident following the GEMCO incident, which temporarily doubled its share price. However, as GEMCO resumed operations and prices normalised, the stock swiftly returned to previous levels. It remains to be seen how manganese prices will fluctuate in the future and what implications this will have for Jupiter Mines and its shareholders.
