After experiencing significant highs in July, Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a period of correction and stability. The cryptocurrency peaked at approximately USD 123,000 (AUD 189,000), but since then, it has retracted by about 7-8%, settling into a trading range between USD 113,000 and USD 115,000 (AUD 173,000 to AUD 176,000).
### Current Market Situation
According to a recent analysis from Glassnode, Bitcoin is facing formidable resistance at around USD 116,000 (AUD 178,000). Many new retail and institutional investors have entered the market with their purchase prices around or above this threshold, resulting in a situation described by Glassnode as an “air gap.” This refers to a price band between USD 110,000 and USD 116,000, where short-term holders are currently at a loss, the support is robust, but demand hasn’t been sufficient to breach the resistance level.
Historically, support levels in this price range have seen bullish investors buying during dips. However, the last fortnight has altered market dynamics. The resistance level at approximately USD 116,900 (AUD 180,000) has solidified as a tough ceiling for Bitcoin’s price, which is struggling to breakthrough.
Despite some accumulation over the past week, the market’s rebound has not been strong enough to reclaim the levels where recent buyers entered. For this group of one-week to one-month holders, their cost basis has effectively become a key resistance level.
### Institutional Demand and ETF Trends
The outlook for Bitcoin’s near-term future appears uncertain, primarily due to cooling institutional demand. If Bitcoin can surpass its current resistance, a return to all-time highs may be possible. However, current market sentiment shows signs of exhaustion, particularly as the percentage of profitable holders has plummeted from 100% to roughly 70%.
This broader market weakness is mirrored by concerning trends in exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Recent data reveals that August 5 was marked by substantial outflows, constituting the largest single-day withdrawal of Bitcoin since April 2025, with 1,500 BTC exiting prominent funds. This trend suggests a waning demand in the current pricing environment, casting doubt on the likelihood of a bullish surge in the near term.
### Future Outlook
Although the current conditions are not favouring a price increase, particularly in August, the ever-changing landscape of cryptocurrency could bring about rapid developments. Regulatory shifts can have a significant impact, potentially reigniting bullish sentiment among investors. In the unpredictable world of cryptocurrency, it’s crucial to remain vigilant as circumstances can change swiftly.
### Summary
– Bitcoin peaked at USD 123,000 (AUD 189,000) in July, but has since retreated to USD 113,000 to USD 115,000 (AUD 173,000 to AUD 176,000).
– A Glassnode report indicates significant resistance at USD 116,000 (AUD 178,000), creating a price zone where many investors are currently experiencing losses.
– Recent ETF outflows suggest a decline in institutional interest, with notable withdrawals on August 5 marking the largest since April 2025.
– Short-term profitability among holders has decreased from 100% to 70%, contributing to a bearish sentiment.
– Despite the current market conditions, positive regulatory changes could potentially shift sentiment back towards bullishness.
As we navigate through these fluctuating trends, it’s imperative for investors to stay informed and agile to adapt to the rapidly evolving crypto landscape.
