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Bitcoin ETFs Experience First Positive Inflows Since Late 2025
In March 2026, U.S. spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) saw a resurgence with net inflows of US$1.32 billion (approximately AU$2.09 billion), marking the first positive monthly inflow since October 2025. Despite this rebound, the first quarter of 2026 ended with net outflows of approximately US$500 million (around AU$790 million), a stark contrast to the previous four months, which collectively recorded outflows nearing US$6.41 billion (approximately AU$10.13 billion).
Market Fluctuations and Investor Sentiment
The recovery in March came after a tumultuous period where Bitcoin prices fell over 22%. The downturn led to overall outflows from November 2025 to February 2026, with November alone seeing withdrawals of US$3.5 billion (AU$5.08 billion) followed by significant outflows in the subsequent months, including US$1.1 billion (AU$1.6 billion) in December and US$1.61 billion (AU$2.33 billion) in January. The price of Bitcoin dropped sharply from its peak of nearly US$126,000 (around AU$182,000) in October 2025 to close at around US$68,000 (approximately AU$98,000) by the end of March 2026.
Reversal of Trends
The holdings across U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs mirrored these outflows, decreasing from about 1.38 million BTC in October to roughly 1.28 million BTC during the period of outflows. By the end of March, this figure rose slightly to approximately 1.31 million BTC, representing approximately 6.5% of the circulating Bitcoin supply. The total assets under management (AUM) for these funds stood at nearly US$87.5 billion (about AU$126.88 billion), with cumulative net inflows since their inception reaching around US$56 billion (roughly AU$81.20 billion).
In March, inflows were characterised by lower trading activity, with the total trading volume decreasing to about US$79 billion, down from US$93 billion in February. The most significant inflow in March occurred on the 2nd, amounting to US$458.19 million (AU$661.28 million).
Noteworthy Contributions and Volatility
Underpinning the late-March activity was BlackRock’s IBIT, which added around 1,450 BTC (valued at about US$98.42 million or AU$140 million) on March 31. This contribution bolstered the total inflows for that day to US$117.63 million. However, volatility remained prevalent, as the end of March also witnessed US$296.18 million (AU$429 million) in net outflows, including a notable single-day withdrawal of US$201.67 million (AU$290 million) from IBIT. This reflects an ongoing sensitivity to short-term price fluctuations.
Ethereum and Solana ETF Performance
Contrasting the fortunes of Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum ETFs recorded substantial losses in the first quarter of 2026, amounting to US$769 million (AU$1.1 billion). Meanwhile, Solana ETFs reported gains of US$213 million (approximately AU$309 million), showcasing a divergence in performance amidst the broader cryptocurrency market context.
Conclusion
The March rebound for Bitcoin spot ETFs, while promising, is set against a backdrop of a challenging first quarter for the cryptocurrency market. With most investors still "underwater"—holding positions significantly above the current market price of around AU$68,000 per Bitcoin—the path forward remains laden with uncertainty. As Bitcoin’s volatility continues to drive investor behaviour, vigilance in market monitoring and strategic decision-making will be critical moving forward.
