Bitcoin has recently demonstrated significant momentum, surpassing two critical on-chain thresholds identified by Glassnode. The cryptocurrency climbed past the True Market Mean at US$78,200 (approximately AU$108K) and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at US$79,100 (around AU$109K), suggesting that the preceding phase of low value may have been brief rather than indicative of a more substantial downturn.
In its report dated May 6, Glassnode noted that Bitcoin’s movement comes after a prolonged period of pressure around this price range. The analytics firm previously highlighted in its Week 16 report that Bitcoin had reclaimed the US$78,100 (about AU$107.9K) True Market Mean for the first time since mid-January. Additionally, there had been a noted price range, or “air gap,” between US$72,000 (approximately AU$100K) and US$82,000 (around AU$114K), which had drawn attention.
### Upcoming Resistance Levels
In terms of potential resistance, Glassnode currently identifies the next significant barrier around US$85,200 (approximately AU$118.4K), which sits above the US$82,000 (AU$114K) options gamma zone also mentioned in the report. Signs of early structural recovery for Bitcoin are evident; however, this does not yet confirm a stable trend. Increased demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) coupled with a predominance of short positions in the derivatives market might create conditions that allow for amplified upward movement driven by short squeezes.
Moreover, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Net Realized Profit/Loss has turned positive, reflecting gains of 0.003% of market capitalisation, indicating that realised profits are beginning to exceed realised losses across the crypto network. Long-term holders are reportedly generating around US$180 million (approximately AU$250.2 million) in realised profits per day. While this marks an improvement compared to figures from late 2022 and September 2024, it remains substantially below the peak cycle levels exceeding US$1 billion (AU$1.39 billion) per day, indicating that the market is not yet experiencing a euphoric sell-off.
A controlled approach to profit-taking is generally seen as favourable compared to a sudden influx of supply. If Bitcoin can effectively manage long-term holder selling while maintaining its regained cost-basis levels, there is a stronger argument for the momentum to continue. However, a significant challenge persists, as realised losses continue to hover at an elevated rate of US$479 million (approximately AU$665.8 million) per day, around 140% greater than the cycle’s baseline.
In summary, while recent movements indicate a potentially healthy recovery for Bitcoin, key indicators suggest a cautious stance is warranted. The landscape remains dynamic, with ETF influx, short positioning, and profit-taking strategies playing pivotal roles in determining the cryptocurrency’s trajectory moving forward.
