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Boss Energy Faces Major Share Price Decline Following Disappointing FY26 Guidance
Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) has encountered a severe selloff, with its shares plummeting nearly 45% to A$1.88 on Monday. This downturn follows the company’s disappointing FY26 production and cost forecasts, which fell significantly short of market expectations.
The situation is further complicated by the recent announcement of CEO Duncan Craib’s resignation, effective September 30, 2025. Investors are even more anxious given that Craib sold a significant portion of his shares in May, totalling approximately A$21 million at a price of A$5.63 per share.
Despite releasing its FY26 forecasts, Boss Energy has provided a vague rationale for the underlying challenges. The company highlighted possible obstacles in reaching full production capacity, attributed mainly to inconsistencies in mineralisation and leachability. An independent review will soon be initiated to assess the potential impacts on initial feasibility study assumptions.
Disappointing FY26 Forecasts
Boss Energy’s revised guidance highlights the scale of investor disappointment when contrasted with Macquarie’s projections (as of July 2025):
- C1 Cash Cost Guidance: A$41-45/lb versus A$34.93/lb (23% higher)
- All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC): A$64-70/lb compared to A$47.29/lb (41.7% higher)
- Capital Expenditure (Capex): A$56-62 million opposed to A$36 million (64% higher)
- Honeymoon Production: 1.6 million lbs against 1.72 million lbs (7% shortfall)
These figures indicate not only higher anticipated costs and capital needs but also subdued production levels. The reference to "less continuity of mineralisation and leachability" raises further concerns about potential risks to production, expenses, and resource quality, reminiscent of issues faced by Core Lithium, which had to reduce production forecasts due to subpar recovery rates.
Current Position of Boss Energy
Boss is currently grappling with multiple negative catalysts:
- The quarterly and full-year production report was pre-announced, indicating previously met FY25 guidance for Honeymoon.
- The new FY26 projections suggest lower uranium production accompanied by rising costs and increased capital investment.
- The uncertainty surrounding mineralisation issues could lead to significant downgrades in the feasibility studies.
- Concerns regarding the timing of the CEO’s resignation have sparked questions about the company’s governance and stability.
The drastic selloff this week underscores a sharp shift in investor sentiment and a complete erosion of confidence in Boss Energy.
Contextual Comparison: Paladin Energy
For perspective, Paladin Energy experienced a similar predicament last November, when it slashed its FY25 production guidance from a range of 4.0-4.5 million pounds to just 3.0-3.6 million pounds—a 22.5% reduction at the midpoint. Citing "ongoing operational variability" at its Langer Heinrich Mine, Paladin’s stock tumbled 28.9%.
The market appears to be penalising Boss Energy more harshly, primarily due to heightened uncertainty regarding project grades and broader economic considerations. While investors in Boss remain hopeful for a rebound, Paladin’s stock remains close to its lowest points.
Conclusion
Despite maintaining exposure to the uranium sector through its producing assets (Honeymoon and Alta Mesa), Boss Energy now finds itself in a vulnerable situation. The company holds a substantial cash reserve of approximately A$224 million, along with a growing resource base.
Nevertheless, Boss is at the mercy of the forthcoming independent review’s results. Investors must consider whether to retain positions in a company facing the threat of further negative revelations, underscoring the precariousness of its current standing in the market.
