Morning Wrap: ASX 200 Expected to Decline, S&P 500 Ends Nine-Day Winning Streak + APA, NHF, and Austal Confirm FY25 Forecasts

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Australian Share Market Update: 6 May 2025

ASX 200 Futures: Down 21 points (-0.25%) at 8:30 am AEST.

Key Takeaways

  • The S&P 500 ended its nine-day winning streak during a quiet trading session with low volumes.
  • Q1 earnings reports have thus far exceeded expectations; however, Bank of America cautions about potential weakness in Q2.
  • A number of firms, such as NHF, APA, and Austal, have reiterated their earnings forecasts for FY25.

Overnight Market Recap

As of 6 May 2025, 8:20 am AEST

Index Value % Change
S&P 500 5,650 -0.64%
Dow Jones 41,219 -0.24%
NASDAQ Composite 17,844 -0.74%
Russell 2000 2,004 -0.82%
Canada 24,954 -0.31%
China 3,279 -0.23%
Germany 23,345 +1.12%
Hong Kong 22,505 +1.74%
India 80,797 +0.37%
Japan 36,831 +1.04%
UK 8,596 +1.17%

Commodities Overview (USD)

Commodity Value % Change
Gold $3,322.30 -0.35%
Copper $4.674 +0.48%
WTI Oil $57.13 -1.99%

Currency & Cryptocurrency

Currency Value % Change
AUD/USD 0.6464 +0.19%
Bitcoin (USD) $94,802 -0.59%
Ethereum (AUD) $2,813 -0.42%

US Market Highlights

  • Major US indices fell but managed to recover slightly from their lowest points.
  • The S&P 500’s break from a nine-day win streak was notable, having occurred only 14 times since 1970.

Investment Insights:

  • Typically, past occurrences of a nine-day streak were followed by average returns of +0.7% (1 month) and +3.6% (12 months), as reported by Goldman Sachs.
  • A defensive rotation was evident, with less volatile sectors finishing close to flat.

Trade Updates:

  • There’s speculation of reduced tariffs on China, as discussed by Trump, with potential announcements expected soon.
  • Notable trading activity saw the Taiwanese dollar surge to a 30-year high due to regional exporters seeking to hedge.

Earnings Insights

  • Blended growth for S&P 500 reporters stands at 12.8%, above expectations of 7.2%.
  • Many companies expect resilience despite a growing mention—24%—of ‘recession’ in earnings calls, compared to only 2% last quarter.

Stock Movements

  • Berkshire Hathaway: Shares slipped 5% following Buffett’s announcement regarding his retirement as CEO.
  • Shell: Exploring a potential takeover of BP amidst declining valuations.
  • Media Companies: Stocks like Netflix and Amazon dipped after the announcement of a 100% tariff on foreign-produced films.

ASX Overview

Key ASX Movements:

  • Civmec received contract awards worth $285 million.
  • HMC Capital revised its FY25 operating EPS forecast down to 66 cents, while maintaining a dividend of 12 cents per share.
  • NextDC saw a significant increase in contracted utilization and raised its capital expenditure forecast to $1.6 billion.
  • Vicinity Centres upgraded its FY25 earnings guidance following a rise in retail sales.

Look Ahead:

  • Gold prices surged 2.8%, benefiting mining stocks post a recent pullback.
  • No dividends or major earnings announcements are scheduled for today.

Economic Calendar

Key Event Today:

  • 11:30 am: Australia Building Permits (March)

Please note that these market moves are fluid and subject to change based on ongoing economic and corporate developments.

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