Ferrari (RACE) is poised to announce its first quarter earnings on Tuesday, providing insights into the luxury automotive market and key territories, notably the Middle East. This release coincides with a renewed tariff threat from President Trump directed at the European Union (EU), adding a layer of complexity to the automaker’s performance outlook.
According to Bloomberg consensus, Ferrari is projected to report Q1 revenues of approximately €1.82 billion, indicating a modest increase compared to the previous year. Analysts anticipate a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of €2.30 and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) of €710 million.
The report is particularly significant as Ferrari faces challenges in the Middle East, a critical market for its sales, amidst heightened regional tensions due to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Investors will be keenly awaiting commentary from Ferrari regarding its operations and sales dynamics in this affected area.
Last year, Ferrari’s global sales dipped slightly to 13,640 units, a strategic decision attributed to an ongoing significant model changeover projected to continue until 2026. The luxury powerhouse is set to unveil four new models by 2026, along with its inaugural electric vehicle (EV), the Luce.
The Luce’s debut is scheduled for later this month in Rome, where early previews have showcased an interior rich in tactile controls designed by Jony Ive’s LoveFrom studio, favouring physical buttons alongside a touchscreen interface.
Maintaining innovation momentum is crucial for Ferrari, especially against the backdrop of potential tariffs. Recently, President Trump threatened to raise tariffs on EU cars and trucks to 25%, claiming that the EU was not upholding a prior agreement that resulted in lower US tariffs on EU automotive exports. Past tariff actions have stirred significant trade tensions, although some tariffs imposed last April were later invalidated by the Supreme Court.
The existing conflict with Iran and the looming tariff threats may weigh on Ferrari’s growth forecasts. For 2026, Ferrari expects to generate about €7.5 billion (approximately $8.91 billion) in revenues, an uplift of 5% from the previous year, alongside an expected adjusted EBITDA of €2.93 billion ($3.48 billion).
In alignment with these growth projections, Ferrari anticipates achieving an industry-leading EBITDA margin of 39.0%, a slight increase of 20 basis points from last year. The company attributes its positive forecast to an improved product mix towards higher-end models, enhanced personalisation options, and a boost in racing revenues.
UBS analysts suggest that Ferrari’s concentration on ultra-high net worth clients and its robust order book are likely to mitigate the risks associated with external market pressures. Analyst Zuzanna Pusz noted that Ferrari’s agile response to market conditions may prompt investors to reassess the company’s stronger visibility derived from its order pipeline. This clientele’s financial robustness—less impacted by fluctuations in oil prices—imbues Ferrari’s guidance with reduced risk.
In summary, as Ferrari approaches its Q1 earnings report, market participants will focus on both the impact of geopolitical and economic variables, as well as the company’s strategic innovations in model releases, particularly the introduction of the Luce EV, and their implications for future revenue performance.
